Posted by Danny Tarlow
The Sweet 16 saw some major upsets, with two of the remaining three number one seeds falling. Perhaps most impressive was Arizona's (5 seed) 93-77 thumping of Duke (1 seed). In the Elite 8, we have the following seeds: 4, 2, 5, 3, 1, 11, 8, 2.
No entrants predicted that Baylor Butler (8 seed) or VCU (11 seed) would have made it this far, but we're starting to see the first signs of weakness in the Higher Seed and Nate Silver baselines. At this point, our Commissioner's human-chosen baseline bracket is tied for first with Team Delete Kernel's algorithmically chosen bracket. Don't count out InItToWinIt or The Pain Machine quite yet, though. I haven't worked through all the scenarios, but if Kansas wins it all and Arizona beats UConn, InItToWinIt has a good shot at the title. If UConn makes it to the final game, The Pain Machine is looking strong. And if Kentucky wins it all, Team Delete Kernel looks to have at least a share of the title locked up. Interestingly, I haven't been able to find a potential outcome where any baseline other than Lee's human-chosen bracket has a chance at the title. So after a tough start, the algorithmically-chosen brackets are making their move!
Currently, here are the standings:
ENTRANT R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Winner Pts Possible Human (Lee) 25 18 16 - - Kansas 59 131 Team Delete Kernel 23 20 16 - - Ohio St. 59 91 Baseline (Higher Seed) 25 20 12 - - Ohio St. 57 81 Baseline (Nate Silver) 25 20 8 - - Ohio St. 53 77 InItToWinIt 22 20 8 - - Kansas 50 106 Baseline (TrueSkill) 26 18 4 - - Ohio St. 48 48 Danny's Dangerous Picks 22 16 8 - - Duke 46 70 The Pain Machine 19 18 8 - - Kansas 45 125 Baseline (LRMC) 25 16 4 - - Ohio St. 45 69 DukeRepeats 23 16 4 - - Duke 43 67 Point Differential Centrality 23 16 4 - - Ohio St. 43 51 dirknbr1 23 8 4 - - Ohio St. 35 59
4 comments:
I don't know about "making a move" but some relative improvement, anyway. I note that the Pain Machine has the highest possible points, by dint of having both finalists still in it. That's a feature (?) of the scoring, since the last round is very important.
Yes, in my opinion, the scoring system does over-weight the later rounds, but I don't have any great suggestions for how to fix it. Any weighting scheme seems to have quite a bit of arbitrariness to it.
I think the original poster meant to say that no entrants picked *Butler*, not Baylor, to have made it this far.
Ah, yes! Thanks for the correction (it's fixed now).
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