Tuesday, November 18, 2008


Posted by Danny Tarlow
I was looking at Intrade's market on potential Secretary of State nominees this morning, and I felt that Hillary's odds were somewhat overstated at $84 for a $100 payoff if she wins (see here and here). Across the board, I felt that was contributing to a low estimate for Bill Richardson ($9 for a $100 contract), so I was thinking about spending $9 to put my money where my mouth is (if Richardson were chosen, I would get a payoff of $100 for that bet). EDIT: I'm glad I didn't make that bet. My credit card company doesn't let me make payments to Intrade, so I gave up shortly after, but I did notice that the spread between Bid and Ask prices were quite large in some of these low volume markets. I did a bit of Googling, and it led me to some tangentially related, interesting articles about Intrade: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/intrades-condit.html http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/

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